Saturday, October 20, 2012

demand management


What Dean Baker and Neil Irwin were discussing. Rogoff and Reinhart's "This Time It's Different" is often used by the usual suspect Centrists as an excuse to be fatalistic and say nothing can be done. Which is wrong. A bigger stimulus, a back-up Plan B stimulus and more unconventional monetary policy would have helped. If we had had no stimulus and the Fed has been even more complacent, things would have been worse.

What Krugman Said, With a Not So Small Addendum by Dean Baker
Anyhow, that is the quick story on the recession. My difference with Krugman is that it is the story of a collapsed bubble, not a financial crisis. (I recall in 2009 hearing folks like Stiglitz praise the well-regulated Spanish financial system and how this had allowed Spain to avoid a financial crisis. Well, maybe that wasn't quite right.) Furthermore, deleveraging will not get us back to full employment. We will need more fiscal stimulus or a lower dollar. Alternatively, we can go the German route of using work sharing to sustain full employment even in an economy that is operating below its potential. 
Demand management in economics 
In economicsdemand management is the art or science of controlling economic demand to avoid a recession. In natural resources management and environmental policy more generally, it refers to policies to control consumer demand for environmentally sensitive or harmful goods such as water and energy. Within manufacturing firms the term is used to describe the activities of demand forecasting, planning, and order fulfillment. 
In economics the term is also used to refer to management of the distribution of, and access to goods and services on the basis of needs. An example is social security and welfare services. Rather than increasing budgets for these things, governments may develop policies that allocate existing resources according to a hierarchy of needs. 
It is inspired by Keynesian macroeconomics, though today elements of it are part of the economic mainstream. 
The underlying idea is for the government to use tools like interest ratestaxation, and public expenditure to change key economic decisions like consumptioninvestment, the balance of trade, and public sector borrowing resulting in an 'evening out' of the business cycle. 
Demand management was widely adopted in the 1950s to 1970s, and was for a time successful. However, it is widely regarded as a force behind the stagflation of the 1970s, though the supply shock caused by the 1973 oil crisis could have also caused that. 
Theoretical criticisms of demand management are that it relies on a long-run Phillips Curve for which there is no evidence, and that it produces dynamic inconsistency and can therefore be non-credible. 
Today, most governments relatively limit interventions in demand management to tackling short-term crises, and rely on policies like independent central banks and fiscal policy rules to prevent long-run economic disruption. 
In the environmental context demand management is increasingly taken seriously to reduce the economy's throughput of scarce resources for which market pricing does not reflect true costs. Examples include metering of municipal water, and carbon taxes on gasoline.
 Note the uncertainty when the 1970s comes up.

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