Monday, December 23, 2013

ways to ease while tapering

Since then, the Fed has tried to explain that less bond-buying doesn't mean rates will rise faster. The opposite, actually. The Fed will try to counteract its reduced bond-buying by raising rates even slower than it planned before. So it's taking monetary stimulus out with the right hand, and putting it back with the left. And there's still plenty more it can put back. After all, the Fed hasn't explicitly lowered its unemployment threshold, nor added an inflation floor. It's just suggested it will do both—and that was enough for now. That the taper didn't make stocks fall or expected rates rise shows that it was.

But there's still work to do. Unemployment is still above target, and inflation is still below. In fact, the Fed expects inflation to stay below target all the way through 2016. As Robin Harding of the Financial Times points out, that's the Fed admitting that it plans to fall short of what it says the best policy is right now. That best policy—what Janet Yellen calls "optimal control"—calls for above-target inflation the next few years to bring down unemployment faster. You can see what that looks like in the chart below from a speech she gave last year. 


In other words, the Fed doesn't need to figure out how to keep monetary stimulus constant even as it tapers. It needs to figure out how to increase monetary stimulus even as it tapers. Or stop tapering.

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