Sanders vs. Warren

It's weird, over the past couple days there's a growing sense among both Warren and Bernie supporters that Warren might win the primary. The proximate cause is probably Biden dropping in the polls with Warren rising. But in some polls Sanders is still doing well. I guess I don't full understand the cause.

What could happen is that enough people want to block Bernie that they outnumber his organizing and name recognition advantages. I wouldn't say it's a given.

If this was 2008, 2012 or 2016 (minus Bernie) I'd be thrilled. But in 2020 it would just signal to me that the working class is still too much in disarray and the professional managerial class really suck shit.They believe the world can stay roughly the same as it has been and they can maintain their privilege b/c the common people can't be trusted to have their own movement.

Big structural change won't be big enough and maybe people become demobilized like after Obama. Or maybe not, who knows.

I guess it's possible that the DSA keeps growing and putting representatives in power. It's possible that Warren gets through a large wealth tax and public worker wage increases, etc. Maybe even workers on corporate boards. Packs the court. Ends the filibuster. That would all be great.

But what we really need for revolutionary reforms to stick is a broad base worker movement. Maybe one would develop under Warren, but her victory would mean we were so close but not quite there yet. And I would be more confident in the success of Sanders administration than a Warren one, but again who knows I could be very wrong.

(maybe the thinking is that currently Bernie is a little ahead of Warren, but if Biden drops out, a majority goes to Bernie. However enough goes to Warren that combined with the centrist supporters of the rest of the field, Warren edges Bernie out. Maybe YangGang decides the winner?)

Update: I forgot. This started when people started looking at the betting sites. PredictIt has Warren wining (but also has Trump winning in the general.) Could be their supporters have money to waste betting and tip the scales.

Update: As Biden sinks and Warren appears to gain momentum (is it real?) the corporate media has decided to give her a push with anti-Bernie outlets pushing a poll which finds that Warren has the most "broad-based metric" which sounds like a new metric they invented to block Bernie. Warren is being talked about as the "compromise" candidate.

Update: Warren supporters don't seem to want to argue about her differences with Bernie. I note that very anti-Bernie people from 2016 are now okay with Warren even though she is similar to Bernie policy-wise. Smells funny to me, but Warren supporters apparently genuinely believe that she is making "big structural change" more palatable to moderates and centrist by somehow "misleading" them. She's downplaying the radical nature of her plans. (sounds like what was said of Hillary and Obama. Sounds like wishful thinking. ) But if you want to motivate voters and energize the base you need to be ambitious. And granted some of Warren's plan are ambitious. That's why I don't think she's fooling anybody.

Update: there's a new poll which shows that Bernie is doing poorly among the elderly. Part of it is that working class and poor people die before they get old.

The Trouble with Capitalism by Chris Dillow

Do either Warren or Sanders need to drop out to defeat Biden? Not so fast. by Ryan Cooper

Update: Warren fans keep coming at me with the betting sites odds, but betting sights have proven to be useless.