Showing posts with label confidence fairy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label confidence fairy. Show all posts

Monday, November 12, 2012


Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race by Nate Silver
Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily. Relative to other national polls, their results seemed to be Democratic-leaning at the time they were published. However, it turned out that most polling firms underestimated Mr. Obama’s performance, so those that had what had seemed to be Democratic-leaning results were often closest to the final outcome.
Rasmussen was Republican-biases as I have always thought.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

The Beatings Will Continues Until Morale Improves*

The Death of Confidence Fairy by Krugman

*via Wikipedia. "The beatings will continue until morale improves is a famous quotation of unknown origin. It literally denotes how morale, such as within a military unit or other hierarchical environment, will be improved through the use of punishment. More importantly, the phrase is used sarcastically to indicate the counterproductive nature of such punishment or excessive control over subordinates such as staff in the workplace or children living at home. The most commonly cited story for the origin of the phrase comes from the Japanese Imperial Navy during World War II. Supposedly, the phrase was first used by a commander of the Japanese Submarine Force. The quotation was not meant to be taken literally but instead was facetious. Another story relates to a case in Canada over a military officer fired for political reasons in which he uttered a similar quotation."