Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race by Nate Silver

Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily. Relative to other national polls, their results seemed to be Democratic-leaning at the time they were published. However, it turned out that most polling firms underestimated Mr. Obama’s performance, so those that had what had seemed to be Democratic-leaning results were often closest to the final outcome.

Rasmussen was Republican-biases as I have always thought.

The Silver Fox: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things better than other people. How? by Yglesias

Just as I had written Obama off...

Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage by Nate Silver

(via DeLong)

The Fed could determine the outcome at its next meeting. And Germany might have helped with its TARP for Spain. My guess is that the recent Greek and French elections combined with the June 17th Greek elections concentrated and focused the Germans' minds.

We'll see what happens with Greece.

Another Example of Why I Distrust Polls

A week ago Gallup said Democrats were down ten points in a generic ballot. This week Gallup says it's even.

(via DeLong, also reported in the NYTimes today)