Sunday, June 06, 2010

Flight to Treasury Bonds wasn't supposed to happen.

It is also sobering that a vast majority of economists and market strategists were forecasting a different chain of events. Treasury yields were universally expected to be rising, not falling, as the United States recovered from a deep recession. The domestic economy is, in fact, growing, and corporate profits have been rising, but the European crisis has overturned many expectations.
...
But Mr. Knapp had thought that the stock market decline would be set off by a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which has operated on an emergency basis since the onset of the financial crisis in the United States. The Fed hasn’t tightened. Instead, to keep the economy stable in the face of Europe’s problems, it has held short-term interest rates near zero. In addition, it reopened emergency swap lines with European central banks last month, to help maintain liquidity there.
...
Mr. Davis said that there is a very "strong correlation" between low Treasury yields and subsequent strong economic growth. And there is a weaker but still significant connection between low yields and high stock returns.

In short, at current prices, it would appear that there is some reason for long-term optimism for stock investors.
(via DeLong)

Geithner urges G-20 nations to spur domestic demand.
The United States wants countries with trade surpluses, like Germany and China, to stimulate domestic demand, fearing that tighter fiscal policy will impede growth and endanger the still-nascent recovery.
"Fiscal consolidation should be 'growth-friendly,'" Mr. Geithner told reporters, saying the "pace and composition of adjustment" should vary across countries.
Krugman responds to the G-20 communiqué:
But don’t we need to worry about government debt? Yes -- but slashing spending while the economy is still deeply depressed is both an extremely costly and quite ineffective way to reduce future debt. Costly, because it depresses the economy further; ineffective, because by depressing the economy, fiscal contraction now reduces tax receipts. A rough estimate right now is that cutting spending by 1 percent of GDP raises the unemployment rate by .75 percent compared with what it would otherwise be, yet reduces future debt by less than 0.5 percent of GDP.
The right thing, overwhelmingly, is to do things that will reduce spending and/or raise revenue after the economy has recovered -- specifically, wait until after the economy is strong enough that monetary policy can offset the contractionary effects of fiscal austerity. But no: the deficit hawks want their cuts while unemployment rates are still at near-record highs and monetary policy is still hard up against the zero bound.

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