Monday, November 14, 2011

 
Eurozone slo-mo break-up
(or when push comes to shove)

Will the European Central Bank transform into the lender of last resort and backstop Italy to stop the crisis? This seems to me the only way it ends without more economic growth. What I see as happening is that Italy's new technocratic government will enact austerity measures that will slow growth, worsen Italy's budget picture and move Italy closer to default. They will not bring down rates. Lower rates would ameliorate the situation but that won't happen unless the ECB backstops Italy. But the ECB says that's not in its job-description. Will it do it when Greece defaults?

What happens when Greece defaults? Is that when push comes to shove and the ECB announces it will backstop Italy or does it continue to buy Italian bonds on the secondary market? Would simply buying bonds be enough to help Italy finance its debt?

What would help the situation would be economic growth. The ECB lowered its rate by .25 percent but that's not enough.

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