Saturday, February 18, 2012

Doable policy goals of Kenyan Socialism:
  1. reclaim productivity from rent-seekers like the textbook cartel (via means like the new Apple Author app, etc.)
  2. follow Germany's lead on worksharing. It probably helped with their budget deficit and helped to counteract the European Central Bank's tight monetary policy
  3. Bank of Japan is targeting one percent inflation. The Fed recently stated that it is targeting two. Why not target higher inflation rates briefly or target trend line NGDP growth? According to rational criteria, Bernanke is wrong and current Fed policies are not working.
Unrealistic goals:
  1. massive fiscal spending while Republicans control the House of Representatives
  2. creation of workers paradise where people have lots of leisure time.
Ideally Kenyan Socialism would have policies that add to aggregate demand and close the output gap by more ways than just via the banking sector.

Employing the banking sector as the main way to add AD allows the financial sector to fight back politically against regulation and taxation.  This would help when interest rates are at the zero bound.

Kenyan Socialism would look at ways to head off asset bubbles rather than just by raising interest rates during times of deflationary pressures. 

Kenyan Socialism would look at ways to deal with global imbalances with Germany and China.

The financial crisis of 2008 didn't start with Lehman but rather started with the implosion of the subprime mortgage market. It was a mistake for regulators like Bernanke to think of it as contained. The bailed out Bear Stearns but let Lehman go unaware that there would be a bank run in the repo market.

Hopefully the Troika (European Commission, European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) realizes that a disorderly Greek exit from the Euro could cause a panic.

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