Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1% by Justin Lahart
The Labor Department’s establishment survey of
employers — the jobs count that it bases its payroll figures on — shows
that the government has been steadily shedding workers since the crisis
struck, with 586,000 fewer jobs than in December 2008. Friday’s
employment report showed the cuts continued in April, with 15,000
government jobs lost.
But the survey of households that the unemployment rate is based on suggests the government job cuts have been much, much worse.
In April the household survey showed that that there were 442,000
fewer people working in government than in March. The household survey
has a much smaller sample size than the establishment survey, and so is
prone to volatility, but the magnitude of the drop is striking: It marks
the largest decline on both an absolute and a percentage basis on
record going back to 1948.
Moreover, the household survey has
consistently showed bigger drops in government employment than the
establishment survey has.
The unemployment rate would be far lower if it hadn’t been for those
cuts: If there were as many people working in government as there were
in December 2008, the unemployment rate in April would have been 7.1%,
not 8.1%.
Ceteris is rarely paribus, of course: If there were
more government jobs now, for example, it’s likely that not as many
people would have left the labor force, and so the actual unemployment
rate would be north of 7.1%.
It's regressive tax on the middle and lower classes as bargaining power is reduced because of a weak labor market. Cyclical unemployment is transformed into long-term unemployment as the nation's human capital and productive capacity is degraded. It's effective class warfare in the wake of a financial crisis caused by the finanical-system-casino being left to its own devices
sans regulation.
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