To be fair, I and other have been surprised by the stubborn persistence of low core inflation; if you’d asked me three years ago, I would have predicted slight deflation by now. My current interpretation is that downward nominal wage rigidity is a bigger issue than we realized. But this is a relatively small failure of prediction compared with the dire forecasts of soaring interest and inflation rates.
Finally, I just want to flag this for the record:Regardless of what the triumphant Keynesians would have you believe, my analysis continues to be that the current combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus is driving us toward disaster. Instead of a real recovery, the US will experience an inflationary depression. Europe, on the other hand, will suffer much less, precisely because it was not seduced by the short-term appeal of stimulus.Yep.