Tuesday, June 04, 2013

The Fed, Inequality and Accounting Identities by Dean Baker
However, a little income accounting here would go along way in helping this discussion. The country has an output gap of around 6 percent of GDP. This is due to the plunge in residential construction following the collapse of the housing bubble and also the lost consumption that resulted from the loss of $8 trillion in housing equity. Standard measures of the housing wealth effect imply that a reduction of $400 billion to $560 billion in annual consumption. 
There are a limited number of channels to fill this lost demand and thereby make up the 9 million jobs deficit we now face. One route is large government deficits, either from increased spending or tax cuts. That is probably the quickest and surest way to make up the demand gap, but the Serious People insist that we can't run large deficits. 
Another obvious route, and probably the best long-term solution, is to get the dollar down. This will improve the international competitiveness of U.S. goods and bring the trade deficit closer to balance. Unfortunately this has not been a high priority for the Obama administration. There are powerful interests like Walmart, many large manufacturers, and the financial sector which benefit from an over-valued dollar. As a result, getting the dollar back to a more sustainable level has not been a priority for the administration. 
When these routes are excluded there are not many other options to increase growth and create jobs. Low interest rates will help by allowing homeowners to refinance their mortgages and free up money for other spending. However this effect will be limited. Even if all $8 trillion in mortgage debt were refinanced at a 1.0 percentage point lower interest rate that would only free up $80 billion. And, this is offset by the fact that those lending the money will have less to spend.

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