Wednesday, July 31, 2013

GDP Grew at Anemic 1.7% Rate Last Quarter. Thanks, Sequester! by Kevin Drum
As I recall, CBO estimated that the sequester alone would cut about 0.8 percent from GDP growth. The fiscal cliff deal might have added another 0.4 percent. If they were right, it means that 2.9 percent growth has been pared back to 1.7 percent. My rough eyeballing of the figures suggests to me that this was probably an overestimate, but probably only by a bit. I'll bet that without the latest round of austerity, growth would have been in the range of 2.5 percent.
Profit Shares Even Higher With New GDP Measures by Dean Baker
The government sector continued to contract, declining at a 0.4 percent annual rate. A 1.5 percent drop in federal spending more than offset a 0.3 percent rise in state and local government spending. The revisions show that government spending has been more of a drag on the economy than had been previously reported. The growth rate of spending was revised down by 0.5 percentage points in both 2009 and 2010 and by 0.7 percentage points in 2011; although growth for 2012 was revised up by 0.7 percentage points. 
One distressing sign in the second-quarter data was a 9.5 percent surge in imports. As a result of this sharp rise, trade subtracted 0.8 percentage points from growth in the quarter.
...
The new data also show profit shares rising even more than had earlier been reported. The profit share of net corporate output rose to 25.5 percent in 2012, the fourth-highest share in the post-war era. The after-tax share was over 19.0 percent in each year from 2010-2012. 
This is a full percentage point below the economy's potential GDP growth. This growth rate would usually be associated with a rise in the unemployment rather than the decline that we have seen over this period.

No comments: