"It is easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."
- Tyrion Lannister

"Lannister. Baratheon. Stark. Tyrell. They're all just spokes on a wheel. This one's on top, then that's ones on top and on and on it spins, crushing those on the ground. I'm not going to stop the wheel. I'm going to break the wheel."

- Daenerys Targaryen


"The Lord of Light wants his enemies burned. The Drowned God wants them drowned. Why are all the gods such vicious cunts? Where's the God of Tits and Wine?"

- Tyrion Lannister


"The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are."

- Jorah Mormont


"These bad people are what I'm good at. Out talking them. Out thinking them."

- Tyrion Lannister


"What happened? I think fundamentals were trumped by mechanics and, to a lesser extent, by demographics."

- Michael Barone

"If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at the people he gave it to."
- Dorothy Parker

Saturday, October 05, 2013

prediction

via Bill McBride who got the non-taper right

Some thoughts from Alec Phillips at Goldman Sachs: Will the Federal Shutdown End with a Debt Ceiling Increase?   
In our view, the most likely outcome of the current fiscal dispute is an agreement that combines an increase in the debt limit and a "continuing resolution" that reopens the federal government. We would expect this to pass no earlier than the end of next week (i.e., October 11-12) and more likely sometime around the Treasury's projected deadline of October 17.

Other outcomes are possible, but we believe they have lower probabilities. It is possible that political pressure to end the shutdown could build, but polling thus far does not indicate this has happened yet. It is also possible that if the effort to resolve the two issues together fails, the shutdown could remain unresolved even after the debt limit has been increased. This is a possibility, but we see it as less likely than a combined continuing resolution and debt limit increase.

The intense public focus on the shutdown may have actually raised the possibility of a "clean" debt limit increase. While the situation could go a number of ways, it still appears that the risk of a failure to raise the debt limit is low and that the shutdown has not had a negative effect on the prospects for increasing it.  
And Phillips also mentions:  
Congress is scheduled to go on recess the week of October 13, but this would presumably have to be cancelled if the debt limit had not yet been addressed. In the past, seemingly intractable political disputes have often been resolved around the start of planned congressional recesses.
emphasis added


Can't miss recess ...

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