"It is easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."
- Tyrion Lannister

"Lannister. Baratheon. Stark. Tyrell. They're all just spokes on a wheel. This one's on top, then that's ones on top and on and on it spins, crushing those on the ground. I'm not going to stop the wheel. I'm going to break the wheel."

- Daenerys Targaryen


"The Lord of Light wants his enemies burned. The Drowned God wants them drowned. Why are all the gods such vicious cunts? Where's the God of Tits and Wine?"

- Tyrion Lannister


"The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are."

- Jorah Mormont


"These bad people are what I'm good at. Out talking them. Out thinking them."

- Tyrion Lannister


"What happened? I think fundamentals were trumped by mechanics and, to a lesser extent, by demographics."

- Michael Barone

"If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at the people he gave it to."
- Dorothy Parker

Friday, October 11, 2013

Silver wrong?

Nate Silver gives a hostage to fortune. Granted, a year is a long time in politics. Going to the mat over defaulting on the debt is a new phenomenon.

The Six Big Takeaways From the Government Shutdown by Nate Silver on October 10, 2013

The Shutdown Probably Won't Kill the GOP in 2014 by Yglesias. Probably wrong like Recovery Winter.

vs. Sam Wang (via DeLong)

Sam Wang: What the Gerrymander giveth with one hand… House 2014, prediction #1:
Provisionally, it looks like the following: In a little over a week, the shutdown has increased the probability of a Democratic House takeover in 2014 from 13% to as high as 50%.

No comments: