Wednesday, July 30, 2014

meme events, inflation and expectations

[rough draft. need meme links and clean up.]

Does the phrase "price level" encapsulate both inflation and deflation.?

Meme events inspire me to make link lists. There's Piketty's K21. The Floor system and the billion dollar coin. German trade surpluses.

And now the Philips Curve with anchored inflation expectations. And the 70s stagflation, new classical revolution which failed in the 80s. A commenter noted how people with debt and little savings are constrained in their spending. They may see higher inflation with food and gas prices going up, but what does this translate into as expectations. Fox News may convince your Republicunt uncle that inflation is raging but what does this mean for his savings and investment decisions?

The history of economic thought is not a food fight: Philips Curve edition by Daniel Kuehn

http://factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-history-of-economic-thought-is-not_4.html

Inflation Expectations: How Credibility Pays Off by Cecchetti and Schoenholtz

Stagflation and the Fall of Macroeconomics by Krugman

Methodological seduction by Simon Wren-Lewis

Financial Market Oversight, Economic Recoveries, and Full Employment: Some Crucial Linkages by Jared Bernstein

The Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment: What We Don’t Know Can Hurt Us by Jared Bernstein

On (Rational) Expectations by Chris Dillow

Defending rational expectations by Simon Wren-Lewis

Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and What We Know (Wonkish) by Krugman


James Tobin and Aggregate Supply (Implicitly Wonkish) by Krugman

The Neo-paleo-Keynesian Counter-counter-counterrevolution (Wonkish) by Krugman



Unanchored by Menzie Chinn

Phillips curves with anchored expectations by Robert Waldmann

Further thoughts on Phillips curves by Simon Wren-Lewis

DEPARTMENT OF "WTF?!" CHRIS HOUSE ON TRADITIONAL MACROECONOMIC MODELS AND THE GREAT RECESSION by DeLong



Nominal wage rigidity. What do inflation expections do? What's the mechanism. Does it effect demand via investment and savings. Those with debt can't really adjust much and don't effect demand much unless they go bankrupt. Aggregate effects? The elderly Fox News crowd can adjust behavior. Give less to Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz?

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