"It is easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."
- Tyrion Lannister

"Lannister. Baratheon. Stark. Tyrell. They're all just spokes on a wheel. This one's on top, then that's ones on top and on and on it spins, crushing those on the ground. I'm not going to stop the wheel. I'm going to break the wheel."

- Daenerys Targaryen


"The Lord of Light wants his enemies burned. The Drowned God wants them drowned. Why are all the gods such vicious cunts? Where's the God of Tits and Wine?"

- Tyrion Lannister


"The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are."

- Jorah Mormont


"These bad people are what I'm good at. Out talking them. Out thinking them."

- Tyrion Lannister


"What happened? I think fundamentals were trumped by mechanics and, to a lesser extent, by demographics."

- Michael Barone

"If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at the people he gave it to."
- Dorothy Parker

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Krugman on Greece

Germany is bringing on the Golden Dawn?

Insert German Curse Word Here

by Krugman

Germany says no to Greek request.To be fair, I think news reports describing the Greek letter as a complete u-turn and capitulation are wrong. I see this:

Photo
Credit
and it looks to me as if Greece is quite carefully not committing to the original fiscal targets; it will attain “appropriate primary fiscal surpluses”, which almost surely means less than 4.5 percent of GDP. So if the German complaint is that Greece is not agreeing to lock in total surrender to the preexisting austerity plan, this appears to be right. Instead, Greece appears to be seeking to buy some time to put together an economic strategy (remember, this is a new government without a deep bench of technocrats), and to negotiate terms later. Germany, on the other hand, is trying to force Syriza into complete abandonment of its election promises right now, today.
Do the Germans really think that’s a likely outcome? I suspect not. This looks to me like an attempt to force Greece out of the euro, right now. German policy is objectively pro-Grexit.
It’s also, given the likely fallout, objectively pro-Golden Dawn.
The role of the ECB is critical here, and Peter Doyle says what I’ve been meaning to say, but better:
[I]n the event that Euro-Greek negotiations fail, the ECB should unequivocally continue to provide full ELA to Greece. Furthermore, it should make that position clear now, while negotiations on the program continue. This would determine that Euro policymakers must not only resolve Greece without the ECB stick corralling them but must also find themselves another Euro enforcement mechanism.
Crunch time.

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