Take Your Pick of the Data

The IMF forecasts 9.5 percent unemployment for this year and 2011.

The Federal Reserve Bank forecasts 9.5 percent unemployment for this year, 8.7 percent for 2011 and 7.5 percent for 2012.

The White House's Office of Management and Budget predicts 9.5 percent this year and 9 percent in 2011. The jobless rate is expected to drop to 8.1 percent in 2012.

The White House’s Office of Management and Budget projected that the deficit for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 would be $1.47 trillion, $84 billion lower than it estimated in February but still a record in dollar terms. Much of the reduction stemmed from lower than anticipated outlays for unemployment insurance. 

Thanks to the filibustering Republicans I would guess. (What heartless bastards.*)

Joe Nocera writes about FICO scores and the big three credit bureaus.

They gather input about the prospective borrower’s lending history from various lenders like credit card companies and auto dealers, plug them into a formula and derive a credit score.

You would think, given the critical importance of an accurate score, that there would be rules about the information that is submitted to them. There aren’t. Lenders can submit information about your credit history to one of the bureaus, all of them or none of them. Some of them turn over information right away; some take months; some don’t do it at all. Some are sticklers for accuracy; others are sloppy. The point is that the credit score is derived after an information-gathering process that is anything but rigorous.

Or, rather, I should say, the three different numbers that are derived. Almost always there is a difference -- sometimes a big difference -- in the credit scores generated by the three bureaus.

...

But what I find incredible is that we have imbued credit scores with these magical predictive powers -- and yet the companies coming up with the scores can’t even get the borrower’s address and employer right. It would be funny if it didn’t matter so much.

This was the week, of course, that President Obama signed the financial reform bill into law, which calls for the establishment of a new consumer financial protection agency. The credit scoring business would certainly seem to be a worthy area for the new agency to dive into.

Wouldn’t you agree, Professor Warren?

Oh no he didn't!
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*I have tickets to see the Heartless Bastards play at the Bottom Lounge tonight.