Pace Yglesias, I predict at this early date that Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias will win the Illinois Senate race. I witnessed him first hand at a town hall tonight and he was very good. Very good.* Yes he is being outspent** by large margins and the Democratic base is somewhat demoralized, and yet I got that feeling.

Furthermore, people in the know are aware that Matthew Yglesias's predictions are always wrong. His commenters regularly request that he publicly predict the opposite of the desired outcome.

Also, I predicted after an early playoff win that the Blackawks would go all the way, after decades of falling short. I have the exact same feeling about Giannnoulias. Go to that Etrade/betting website (what's it called???) and make large wagers. That's what I'm going to do.

And as Giannoulias said at the town hall tonight, the race may just decide the fate of America.*** Seriously!

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*And this is coming form a political junkie/nerd. He was good on the filibuster, energy policy, immigration, government transparency, etc., etc. except for Israel. But who can blame him on that?
** Giannoulias has refused contributions from federal political action committees or lobbyists. So it's not a surprise he's behind in raising money, although the polls say the race is even. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, however, is doing a better job raising money than its rival.
*** Conservatives will get a huge morale boost from taking Obama's old Senate seat, plus with Republicans filibustering every chance they get, every Senate seat counts.