Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Yeah but in the long term you're dead.

The Republican push to amend the 14th amendment may be good short-term politics but is horrible long-term politics, something Karl Rove and George W. Bush would probably agree with.

Likewise the long-term demographic trends are good for Democrats, but more old timers turn out for midterms, which is good for Republicans. Jonathan Chait blogs:
The second aspect is the old-ification of the Republican Party. 2009-2010 have been dominated by a health care debate that splits oldsters, who despise health care reform, from all other age groups, who approve of it. The generational split seems to have deepening partisan overtones. In the long run, this is a boon for Democrats. In the short run, it's a disaster, because old people vote in midterm elections and young people don't:
Exit poll data shows that the electorate skews older, particularly in nonpresidential election years. In 2006, 63 percent of those who cast ballots were 45 or older, and in 2008, that same age group made up 53 percent of the electorate, according to exit poll data from the National Election Pool. This group made up about half of the adult population in those years.
The thread connecting both these factors is a belief that the presidency is the end-all, be-all of American politics. Young people and liberals get very excited about presidential elections. When the other party holds the White House, they can get fired up about turning them out. When their party wins, they expect all their problems to be solved. When the problems don't disappear immediately, they get disillusioned.

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