Is this the actuarial science, something the ratings agencies (Moody's, _____, _____ ) failed at by giving toxic sludge AAA ratings?
Yglesias's review of Nate Silver's new book urges the "curious fox (not hedgehog)" to look into economic forecasting. It's hard because as Yglesias says future economic conditions depend upon political outcomes.
Ygelsias also wrote about this research paper put out by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which says that central banks are poor forecasters. From the paper:
Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.Probably because central banks target inflation rates and not GDP growth/full employment.
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