Wednesday, November 14, 2012

"When my information changes, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?" 
- Keynes

PUBLIC DEFENDER: Diane Ravitch takes on a movement. by David Denby


Sounding like Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Narayna Kocherlakota at a town hall in Duluth on October 30th:
In light of the unusually large macroeconomic shock, I believe that it is misleading to assess the FOMC’s actions by comparing its current choices to policy steps taken over the past 30 years. Instead, we have to assess monetary policy by comparing the economy’s performance relative to the FOMC’s goals of price stability and maximum employment. In particular,if the FOMC’s policy is too accommodative, that should manifest itself in inflation above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. This has not been true over the past year: Personal consumption expenditure inflation—including food and energy—is running closer to 1.5 percent than the Fed’s target of 2 percent.1
But this comparison using inflation over the past year is at best incomplete. Current monetary policy is typically thought to affect inflation with a one- to two-year lag. This means that we should always judge the appropriateness of current monetary policy using our best possible forecast of inflation, not current inflation. Along those lines, most FOMC participants expect that inflation will remain at or below 2 percent over the next one to two years. Given how high unemployment is expected to remain over the next few years, these inflation forecasts suggest that monetary policy is, if anything, too tight, not too easy.
He used to talk about structural unemployment. What changed his mind? Perhaps it was the visit to the North Dakota "mancamps."

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