ARE THERE RISKS TO ABENOMICS? by DeLong
Moreover, to the extent Abenomics succeeds in boosting the economy's risk tolerance, the wedge between the private and public real interest rates will fall. Thus Paul might be completely correct in his belief that Abenomics will lower the real interest rate--but which real interest rate? The real interest rate it lowers might be the private rate, and that could be accompanied by a collapse in spreads that would raise the JGB interest rate and make the debt unsustainable.
Do I think that these are worries that should keep Japan from undertaking Abenomics? I say: Clearly and definitely not. Do I think that these are things that we should worry about and keep a weather eye out as we watch for them? I say: Clearly and definitely yes. Do I think these are things that might actually happen? I say: maybe.
I think it was a mistake for the Clinton Treasury where DeLong worked to worry about Greenspan raising rates at the slightest pretext. Clinton should not have bent the knee to an Ayn Rand disciple.
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