Saturday, June 15, 2013

Yes but the Stimulati were not running things.

ORIGINS OF THE CRISIS by Chris Dillow
After 1997, Asian economies wanted to run big current account surpluses, either as a policy of export-led growth or in order to rebuild reserves depleted by the 97 crisis. By definition, this meant they were net savers, which put incipient downward pressure upon global interest rates. In a parallel universe, these high savings might have financed a boom in real capital spending in the west. But because firms couldn't see good investment opportunities, this didn't happen.Instead, the lower interest rates fuelled a housing boom and the hunt for yield led to strong demand for mortgage derivatives. These bubbles in housing and derivatives then burst, giving us the crisis. 
In this way, we've seen what Marx saw in the 19th century - that a lack of profitable opportunities in the real economy pushes people down "the adventurous road of speculation, credit frauds, stock swindles, and crises." 
I say all this as a corrective to a common view on the non-Marxist left - that our economic problems are due to greedy bankers and to austerity. But this is nothing like the whole story. This has been a crisis of real, and not just financial, capitalism - which is why it is so intractable

IMF Urges Repeal of 'Ill-Designed' Spending Cuts by Mark Thoma

In case you missed this, the IMF estimates that economic growth would be nearly double what it is now without the "excessively rapid and ill-designed" government spending cuts:
IMF Urges Washington to Repeal ‘Ill-Designed’ Spending Cuts, Reuters: The International Monetary Fund urged the United States on Friday to repeal sweeping government spending cuts and recommended that the Federal Reserve continue a bond-buying program through at least the end of the year. 
In its annual check of the health of the U.S. economy, the IMF forecast economic growth would be a sluggish 1.9 percent this year. The IMF estimates growth would be as much as 1.75 percentage points higher if not for a rush to cut the government's budget deficit. ... 
"The deficit reduction in 2013 has been excessively rapid and ill-designed," the IMF said. "These cuts should be replaced with a back-loaded mix of entitlement savings and new revenues." 
The IMF warned cuts to education, science and infrastructure spending could reduce potential growth. ... 
The Fund recommended that the U.S. Federal Reserve keep up its massive asset purchases at least through the end of the year to support the U.S. recovery, but should also prepare for a pull-back in the future. ...
The recovery of output and employment didn't have to be so slow. I'm not saying that reversing these policies (or replacing them with more aggressive fiscal policy measures) would have brought miracles, it was going to be a difficult recovery no matter what polices we pursued. But we certainly could have done better than we did, particularly on the fiscal policy front.

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