Saturday, July 06, 2013

downward nominal wage rigidity

Potential Mistakes (Wonkish) by Krugman
But right now we have high unemployment combined with more or less stable core inflation. Typical models would interpret this as a sharp rise in the natural rate, from maybe 5.5 to 8 percent. But what it almost surely reflects instead is the stickiness of inflation at low levels; the long-run Phillips curve isnot vertical thanks mainly to downward nominal wage rigidity,and that reality is central to what’s happening now. 
I wish that these were narrow technical issues, of no importance for real-world policy. Unfortunately, they’re not. Understating output gaps leads to excessive demands for austerity and excessive complacency at central banks; this perpetuates the depression; and the longer the depression goes on, the more misleading the standard estimates become. 
So it’s good news that at least somebody in Brussels is aware that there might be a problem.

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