"Shia Crescent" Expanding?

Not surprisingly, Matt Yglesias is blasé about the fighting in Yemen spilling over the border into Saudi Arabia (see map above). Probably because he sees it through the optics of the debate over the Iraq war and American foreign policy.

I agree that we shouldn't worry about things until they actually happen, but this does raise the specter of the rivalry of Iran and Saudi Arabia intensifying.

A battle between the Arab world’s leading Sunni power and Shiite Iran, even at one remove, could significantly elevate sectarian tensions across the region. Iran gained tremendous leverage over the Israeli-Palestinian problem by supporting the militant groups Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and Hamas, in Gaza. Helping the Houthis, another guerrilla group with great staying power, could give them a way to put pressure on Saudi Arabia.

Iran has long denied aiding the Houthis, who have been battling the Yemeni government intermittently for more than five years. On Tuesday, the Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, affirmed that position, saying no country should "interfere in internal issues" in Yemen.

But in recent months, Iran’s state-owned news media have been covering the Houthis’ struggle against the Yemeni military more intensively and more sympathetically than ever, setting off alarms across the region. Yemeni officials have accused the Houthis of receiving money from Shiite charities in Iran and elsewhere.

Last month, the Yemeni government said it had intercepted an Iranian vessel carrying weapons in the Red Sea near where the Houthis are based. But Yemen has not supplied any evidence to back up that claim.

Also:

The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out.

Given that they provide around 90% of the country's exports, this could be catastrophic.

An unnamed energy expert is quoted in the report as saying that this points to economic collapse within four of five years time.

It could also be that the Iranian regime is trying to direct attention elsewhere via its state-run media. (But then they do meddle with other sovereign nations' "internal issues" via Hamas and Hezbollah. Maliki was surprised to discover the extent of Iranian meddling in southern Iraq.) However, if - when - we pull out of Iraq, and if Iran insists on stirring up trouble via Saudi Arabia's minority Shia who live near the oil fields, and the two countries go at it, oil prices will go through the roof and the already weak global economy will go into a tailspin. And many, many nasty Republicans will be elected to political office, something Yglesias does care about. And I'll say I told you so. Until then, no need to worry though.