Excellent journalist Neil Irwin at the Washington Post writes about the Fed meeting next week.

These measures are likely to be the focus of a vigorous debate at a Fed policy meeting next week, setting the stage for a definitive decision in November or December on whether to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds in an effort to strengthen the economy. No action is likely at the policy meeting scheduled for Tuesday, which means monetary policy could remain in a holding pattern until the Fed committee reconvenes later in the fall.

Fed policymakers face two major questions: Will the weak economic recovery of the past few months persist through 2011? And would pumping vast new sums of money into the economy pack enough punch to be worth the risks?

Top Fed officials will be preparing formal forecasts for the economy over the coming years in advance of their meeting Nov. 2 and 3. If their consensus is that growth will be too slow next year to bring down the unemployment rate significantly, they will be more inclined to take action, even if the exact economic impact is modest and hard to predict, according to analysts who study the Fed.

I think there is no question growth will be too slow next year. The stimulus will end soon. Maybe they will wait until after the election.