Saturday, October 15, 2011

"Fantastic fears of inflation were expressed. That was to cry, Fire, Fire in Noah's Flood."

Overcoming America's Debt Overhang: The Case for Inflation by Christopher Hayes (Sept. 9, 2009 two years ago)

(via Rortybomb)

Also from Rortybomb:
First, also from Ezra’s article, Joe Stiglitz gets the core of it:
Yet even among economists who admire Reinhart and Rogoff’s work, there is skepticism.  One source comes in how Reinhart and Rogoff find the economic phenomena they’re trying to study. “There’s an identification problem,” Stiglitz says. “When you have underlying problems that are deep, they will cause a financial crisis, and the crisis itself is a symptom of underlying problems.”
Next Ben Bernanke, transcript:
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE: …I thought [This Time It's Different] was informative and as you say, it makes the point that as a historical matter, recoveries following a financial crisis tend to be slow.
What the book didn’t do is give a full explanation of why that’s the case. Part of it has to do with the problems in credit markets. My own research when I was in academia focused a good deal on the problems in credit markets on recoveries…
That said, another possible explanation for the slow recovery from financial crises might be that policy responses were not adequate. That the recapitalization of the banking system, the restoration of credit flows and the monetary fiscal policies were not sufficient to get as quick a recovery as might otherwise have been possible.
Here is Joe Gagnon:
Some have argued that economies take longer than normal to return to full employment after financial crises (Reinhart and Rogoff 2009). However, there is a wide range of growth outcomes after financial crises, and the worst outcomes tended to be associated with the poorest policy responses.
The goal of policymakers should be to learn from the past and achieve a better outcome than simply the average of past outcomes. In the current crisis, the zero bound on interest rates has been a major factor preventing monetary policymakers from doing as much as they otherwise would to speed recoveries. But, as discussed below, the zero bound is not a limit on what monetary policy can do. There is plenty of scope for further monetary stimulus.

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