Woodford on Monetary Policy (Sort of Wonkish) by Krugman
A Flow Chart For Ben Bernanke by Yglesias
150,000 Jobs Per Month Is Not Robust Growth by Dean Baker
So what should the Fed be doing? Woodford concludes that it needs to make a change in its basic policy pronouncements, so as to make them “history-dependent” — that is, it needs to promulgate a view of its intentions that would lead it to be slower to raise rates following a big slump than it would in other circumstances. And let me repeat the past tense: following a big slump, not just when you’re in it.
How to do this? Nominal GDP targeting would be one answer, because it would give the Fed a reason to hold off for a long time on rate hikes. Other schemes might also do the trick.
A Flow Chart For Ben Bernanke by Yglesias
Okay, some cheap WAPO bashing this morning, an article on Bernanke's speech as Jackson Hole, described a rate of job growth of 150,000 a month or more as "robust." Sorry, that isn't close to right.
The economy is down by more than 9.5 million jobs from its trend path. We need roughly 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the labor force. This means that at 150,000 jobs per month, we are making up the jobs shortfall at the rate of 50,000 a month. At this pace it will take us close to 16 years to get back to the economy's trend job growth path. A rate of job creation that gets us to full employment in 2028 is not robust.
For the young uns out there, or those with bad memories we created 250,000 jobs per month over the last four years of the Clinton administration, and that was starting with an unemployment rate below 6.0 percent. We should not subject our economic policymakers to the soft bigotry of low expectations.
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