Tuesday, September 04, 2012


Mr. Bernanke’s Next Task 
It will be another week — at a meeting of the Federal Reserve policy-making committee on Sept. 12 and 13 — before anyone knows for sure what Ben Bernanke thinks the Fed should do, if anything, to stimulate the weak economy. What is known is that, without more help, the economy is likely to remain weak, or grow weaker, through the rest of this year.
In his speech on Friday at the annual meeting on monetary policy in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Mr. Bernanke said that past Fed interventions had been a plus for the economy, raising growth enough to add an estimated two million jobs, but that economic conditions are still “obviously far from satisfactory.” Then he said that more help would be forthcoming “as needed.”  
But, by his own analysis, help is needed now. 
Mr. Bernanke said that national unemployment, at 8.3 percent, is unacceptably high and that much faster growth will be needed to bring that number down. But the economy, instead of accelerating, has slowed, from 4.1 percent in the last quarter of 2011, to 2 percent in the first quarter of 2012 and to 1.7 percent in the second quarter
Mr. Bernanke also stressed that persistently high unemployment risks bringing on irreversible economic damage as the long-term unemployed become the permanently unemployable. Even as overall unemployment has declined from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009, the share of jobless workers out of work for more than six months has remained stubbornly high. 
According to Mr. Bernanke, the economy is being held back by a sluggish housing market; counterproductive fiscal policy, as both the federal government and the states cut spending in the face of weak growth; and the euro crisis, which hurts the United States because of trade and financial links to Europe. 
All this is true and reflected in slumping consumer confidence, heightened business uncertainty and a recent slowdown in manufacturing. Unfortunately, meaningful progress on housing and fiscal policy requires Congress to act. Congressional Republicans, however, have long resisted efforts to revive growth on the theory that a weak economy will help them regain the White House. As for the euro crisis, there is nothing much that American policy makers can do. 
That leaves the Fed the only entity with the autonomy and the power to take action. Admittedly, its tools — various ways to reduce borrowing costs and spur lending — are not ideal for the problems that Mr. Bernanke has identified. It would be better, for example, for lawmakers to bolster federal spending in the near term to create jobs than for the Fed to indirectly attempt to boost activity through more lending. It would also be better for Congress to provide more debt relief for underwater homeowners, as the Fed keeps mortgage rates low for new buyers. 
But that is too logical for these times. Mr. Bernanke has laid out the problem, including the economic drag caused by political dysfunction. But he has also risked becoming part of the dysfunctional dynamic, exhorting and waiting for others to act when they are clearly unable or unwilling to do so. 
Here’s hoping that will change at the Fed meeting next week. And here’s hoping that any help is not too little, too late.
So if it were up to Dan Kervick and others critical of the blogosphere's focus on the Fed, the economy would be down 2 million jobs.

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