"It is easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."
- Tyrion Lannister

"Lannister. Baratheon. Stark. Tyrell. They're all just spokes on a wheel. This one's on top, then that's ones on top and on and on it spins, crushing those on the ground. I'm not going to stop the wheel. I'm going to break the wheel."

- Daenerys Targaryen


"The Lord of Light wants his enemies burned. The Drowned God wants them drowned. Why are all the gods such vicious cunts? Where's the God of Tits and Wine?"

- Tyrion Lannister


"The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are."

- Jorah Mormont


"These bad people are what I'm good at. Out talking them. Out thinking them."

- Tyrion Lannister


"What happened? I think fundamentals were trumped by mechanics and, to a lesser extent, by demographics."

- Michael Barone

"If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at the people he gave it to."
- Dorothy Parker

Sunday, October 27, 2013

inflation and expectations; Shiller

PPP and Japanese Inflation Expectations (Extremely Wonkish) by Krugman
I have my doubts about the apparent decline in recent months. It’s being driven not by events in Japan but by the taper scare, which drove up US rates. There is a question about why that rise in US rates didn’t produce a lot more yen depreciation, but something seems off here.

The main point, however, is that this measure does suggest a substantial rise in expected inflation since Abenomics began, which is good news.
Sharing Nobel Honors, and Agreeing to Disagree by Robert J. Shiller

In Fed and Out, Many Now Think Inflation Helps by Binyamin Appelbaum

Faster Inflation Would Help…Really! by Jared Bernstein

Bill de Blasio for Mayor by the NYTimes Editorial Board

Election is in 10 days?

Positive Outlook: Abenomics is succeeding. Obamacare will succeed. Republicans will lose House next year. Yellen. Economy should pick up even if inflation is below target.

Update:
The Economics of Rip Van Winkle by Krugman 
Binyamin Applebaum’s piece on the growing acknowledgment that moderate inflation can help, especially under current circumstances. But I can’t help thinking, only now they notice? I mean, this was all worked out and carefully explained fifteen years ago.

Oh, and the hard thing now is how you get inflation when we’re already at the zero lower bound. You really want this tied to expansionary fiscal policy, not austerity.

Still, any intellectual forward motion is welcome.

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