David Simon is tired of your love for The Wire

In a typically contentious New York Times interview, the guy who would probably appreciate it if we didn’t refer to him as “Wire creator” waxed crotchety over his exhaustion with all the too-late love for the show, which could have used that sort of attention when it was still on the air. Because, like the scrappy punk band that only sold a handful of records in its heyday, but now everyone is so into it, you just weren’t there, man: 

Damsels in Distress Onion review

My pick for the three dragonriders who will conquer Westeros are Old Nan, Hodor and Patchface.

The Red Priestess

The night is dark and full of terrors,
but the fire burns them all away

Camila Vallejo, the World’s Most Glamorous Revolutionary

 
Spain Jolts Euro Zone Back on Alert

"Embarrass the Future"? by Linda Greenhouse

The chief justice’s concurring opinion in the strip search case, only three paragraphs long, is interesting for a reason beyond what it might suggest about intramural stress. Here is the final paragraph:

“The court makes a persuasive case for the general applicability of the rule it announces. The court is nonetheless wise to leave open the possibility of exceptions, to ensure that we not ‘embarrass the future.’ ”

“Embarrass the future”? The quote, from a 1944 opinion by Justice Felix Frankfurter in a tax case, is usually offered to mean that the court shouldn’t encumber itself by declaring solutions to problems that have yet to emerge. Maybe that’s all the chief justice meant. But John Roberts is both a careful prose stylist and a man acutely conscious of his and the court’s place in history. There are so many other ways of expressing a minimalist impulse than this unconventional use of the word “embarrass” that I have to wonder whether he didn’t have in mind the prospect of institutional embarrassment, and not only in the case at hand.

Feldstein v. Lazear on the Size of the Output Gap by EconoSpeak (ProGrowthLiberal)

Lazear wants us to believe that the economy could have continued to grow by 3.4% per year since 2007QIV even though average growth was less than 2.5% for the 2001 to 2007 period. If that claim had any credence then potential real GDP would have been almost $15.3 trillion as of 2011QIV as opposed to actual real GDP being only $13.4 trillion. In other words, Lazear wants us to believe that the current GDP gap is 12%. Not that anyone should believe such nonsense but isn’t it interesting that Dr. Feldstein is worried that we may be overestimating the GDP gap.

Republicans are simultaneously pushing two themes. One theme is that current Federal Reserve policy is endangering an inflationary spiral, which seems to be the concern of Dr. Feldstein. The other theme is that the Obama Administration is somehow making the recession worse, which Dr. Lazear was so happy to echo. Funny thing – these two themes appear to be contradictory.

(via Thoma)

Cold Winds Are Rising.

Briefly, three things struck me about last night's Game of Thrones season 2 opener. I liked how they used the red comet in the sky to shift scenes from Bran at Winterfell to Daenerys in the Red Wastes of Esteros to Jon Snow north of the Wall to Stannis Baratheon on Dragonstone. There was also the symmetry of the new kings standing up to their respective strong-willed mothers: Robb to Catelyn and Joffrey to Cersei. (Turns out they should heed their mothers' advice.)

Also during the small council meeting, Maester Pycelle displayed the white raven from the Citadel in Oldtown which means the maesters had determined the long summer was over and Winter is Coming. Littlefinger noted they had enough wheat for 5 years but if the winter lasted longer, well they'd have fewer peasants, of course.

For some reason this reminded me of macroeconomic policy discussion. In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions just as the conclave of maesters date the seasons in Westeros. And it reminded me of the way elite policymakers take an "objective" view of the fates of the "small people." Fewer peasants if they didn't store enough wheat? No biggie. Transforming cyclical unemployment into long-term unemployment and degrading the nation's productive capacity with a prolonged output gap? Oh well, won't really effect our social circle, just the common people, who as Jorah Mormont said "don't care about the games the high lords play" and only "pray for rain, health and a summer that never ends."

Charlie Jane Anders recap of season 2 episode 1 "The North Remembers"

(A couple of side notes: first, when Cersei makes a fuss over Littlefinger's mockingbird pin, was I the only one who went, "OMG, Littlefinger's in league with Katniss"? And second, the only pornotastic moment in the episode, in Littlefinger's brothel, involves newbie sex workers getting schooled in the art of fakery, underscoring that for Littlefinger, both knowledge and falsehood are power.)*

George R.R. Martin’s A Song Of Ice And Fire by Genevieve Koski and Tasha Robinson

The North Remembers (for experts) - the Onion recap

(good comment section. Spoilers by the barrel-full.)

The North Remembers (for newbies) - the Onion recap

What I find myself drawn to in the books and show are the characters who have a sense of honor and goodness.** Tyrion, Ser Jorah Mormont, Ser Barristan Selmy, Davos Seaworth and Brienne Tarth. I find it compelling even if some of them might in some people's minds have too much honor (like Ned Stark and Stannis). It makes a nice contrast in a world of such cruelty. As Robert Baratheon tells Cersei, "that's all the realm is now: backstabbing and scheming and ass-licking and money-grubbing." And then with Joffrey the people get another evil, capricious dictator not unlike the "Mad King" Aerys Targaryen who the Houses Stark, Baratheon, and Arryn rebelled against (with the Lannisters coming in at the very end).
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* The Hunger Games soundtrack is doing well with two bands Krugman has promoted at his blog: The Civil Wars and Arcade Fire (although Arcade Fire were already huge.) There's also Neko Case who I love and Taylor Swift who I like but feel somehow I shouldn't like. She's too pop? Too young?

** I'm also drawn to the characters who are sort of cheeky, brave, fearless-in-a-way and smart-asses like Tyrion (who isn't afraid of his sister and talks back to his father) and Oberyn Martell who fights the Mountain - Jaime to an extent but for him its almost to a fault - and Renly Baratheon in the book. In the show to me he's painted as being more resentful of his brother Robert. In the book he comes off as more devil-may care (which turns out badly for him) although I like the actor who plays him in the show.

Game of Thrones Season 2 is this Sunday. Here is a half hour special were the makers discuss some interesting things:

Full-Length Special: You Win or You Die

Three things struck me. One is how they emphasize the feminist nature of the strong female characters, maybe because fantasy fans are typically male. Secondly, how one of the creators said he wanted it to be like past HBO shows the Sopranos and Deadwood with many characters (but no mention of the Wire.) And thirdly, one of the creators mentioned how the show entered into discussion of contemporary politics. My guess is he was referring to the way Obama was played by Republicans over, say, the debt ceiling and how Ned Stark was played by Cersei and Littlefinger. Lefty/liberal critics of Obama say he was naive to believe his opponents would negotiate in good faith. Maybe so but part of the reason Obama was elected was his appeal to patriotic, post-partisanship (neither red states nor blue states but one America, etc.) Just as Ned Stark was loved and respected as a leader, friend, husband, brother and father for his appeal to a code of honor and loyalty.

Alan Beattie, Archon of the Shrill: Selections from His "Who’s in Charge Here?" by DeLong

Book extract: Who’s in Charge Here?: The problem is not the international monetary or economic system as such. It is that economic policy was run badly within that system…. Financial regulators and central banks were far too nonchalant about the huge amount of borrowing that was going on, and the ever more exotic financial assets that were being created to facilitate it. Governments in economies such as the UK and USA watched huge housing booms take off, financed by those incomprehensible financial instruments, and cheered them on their way…. But there was nothing inevitable about making these mistakes. Nothing in the global economic system forced the USA to run a hopelessly dispersed regulatory system that allowed financial institutions to escape proper scrutiny…. No one compelled a gang of countries in Continental Europe to yoke their disparate economies together in a badly designed currency union that encouraged asset bubbles in the periphery fueled by reckless lending by banks in the centre.

Some argue that the crisis was inevitable because the big emerging markets, particularly China, by persisting in intervening in the foreign exchange markets to hold down their own currencies, were in effect shovelling huge amounts of money at the rich world…. But the mistakes of countries on the receiving end were avoidable without changing the system – indeed, some countries have largely avoided them. Countries where governments exercised proper control over their banks, such as Canada and Australia, have been much more stable. Not a single major Canadian financial institution failed during the crisis….

The current predicament of the world economy is all the more poignant because it is unnecessary. This is a political and ideological crisis, not a technocratic one. Authorities could have done, and could still do, a lot to prevent their economies sliding back into recession and financial chaos. That they are not doing so is not just because of a lack of political will. It is also because significant numbers of voters and politicians have learnt precisely the wrong lessons from previous episodes and are determined to make similar mistakes all over again.

 
Ben Bernanke's Eeyore Strategy by Yglesias

Charles Evans and friends on the Odyssean strategy

Circumstances will tempt the FOMC to renege on these promises precisely because the policy rule describes its preferred behavior. Hence this kind of forward guidance resembles Odysseus commanding his sailors to tie him to the ship's mast so that he can enjoy the Sirens' music.

And a little meta-humor in the first footnote! Very David Foster Wallacian.

Bloggers in St. Louis by Mark Thoma

Krugman Nails It! Problem Is Crony Capitalism, Not Free Market Fundamentalism by Dean Baker

Bernanke gave a talk to the National Association for Business Economists.

In addition to the heavy toll on workers and families, he noted that “Because of its negative effects on workers’ skills and attachment to the labor force, long-term unemployment may ultimately reduce the productive capacity of our economy.”
...

Mr. Bernanke said Monday that structural unemployment may have increased in recent years, but that high unemployment was mostly cyclical.

“The continued weakness in aggregate demand is likely the predominant factor,” he said. “Consequently, the Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary policies, by providing support for demand and for the recovery, should help, over time, to reduce long-term unemployment as well.”

Mr. Bernanke outlined several reasons for this conclusion. He said that people who lost work recently had not increased their advantage in finding new jobs over the long-term unemployed, as might be expected if the latter group were languishing because they lacked relevant skills. And he noted that hiring generally remained weak across the economy, again suggesting that the lack of new hiring had broad causes rather than industry-specific roots.

Lessons from the Great Canadian Slump by Krugman

A prolonged Output Gap does not necessarily entail deflation or falling inflation/disinflation.

A Bailout by Another Name by Gretchen Morgenson

Morgenson discusses Peter DeMarco and principle writedowns and differs from people I usually agree with. She feels to take up a number of issues like aren't taxpayers served by an economy growing at potential with no output gap? It is giving money to banks but it is also helping people deleverage by getting out from under underwater mortgages. Perhaps there would be some way for the banks to help pay, but I doubt the Republicans who control the House would go for it.

The Age of the Shadow Bank Run by Tyler Cowen

Cowen notes the success of the post-World Years II with FDIC preventing bank runs but suggest doing something similar today would create morale hazard. Basically he's anti-regulation. Weird aporia of a liberatarian.

Macroeconomic Chutzpah by Krugman

Spain Is Not Out of the Woods Yet

Tested By A Picturesque Dystopia by Manohla Dargis

Confessed 4 Life

Bridget Regan replies to Seeker costar Craig Horner: "Sad I can't be there with you!"

Horner: "Seeker Fans, I will be visiting WonderCon in Anaheim California March 17th and 18th from 12pm till 3:30pm..."

Bernanke Denies Fed Rate Policy Caused Housing Bubble

Most evidence suggests the Federal Reserve‘s policy of low interest rates in the early 2000s didn’t cause the recent housing bubble, Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday in slides prepared for a college lecture.

While some have argued the Fed’s low interest rates in the early 2000s contributed to the U.S. housing collapse, international examples and the timing of the bubble show otherwise, Bernanke said Thursday in slides for the second of his four lectures at George Washington University this month.

For example, house prices rose sharply in the United Kingdom in the same time period, even though the U.K. had tighter monetary policy than the U.S., Bernanke wrote. He also noted housing prices began to pick up in the late 1990s before the Fed began cutting interest rates and rose sharply after the central bank began tightening.