Tuesday, August 31, 2010


The Fed released the August 10th FOMC minutes and there's no nice chart like there was in June:


Instead they say "Thus, while they saw growth as likely to be more modest in the near term, participants continued to anticipate that growth would pick up in 2011." So, 3.5 to 4.2 percent in 2011 with unemployment going down to 8.3 to 8.7 percent? Doubt it.
Many said they expected underlying inflation to stay, for some time, below levels they judged most consistent with the dual mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. Participants viewed the risk of deflation as quite small, but a number judged that the risk of further disinflation had increased somewhat despite the stability of longer-run inflation expectations. One noted that survey measures of longer-run inflation expectations had remained positive in Japan throughout that country's bout of deflation.
Yeah markets are wrong sometimes. Like with the housing bubble.

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