Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Matt Taibbi once famously wrote of Goldman Sachs,
The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.
And yet just as the Wall Street Journal's reporting is world-class* - as opposed to its loco Op-Ed pages - Goldman Sachs's economic analysts have always been very accurate in spite of the firm's destructive looting behavior. Krugman reprints the reaction of Jan Hatzius, the head of Goldman's econ group, to the FOMC August 10 minutes:
Second, the confidence that deflation will be avoided is at odds with the recent moves in some measures of inflation expectations. Survey expectations have not changed much, but the decline in forward measures of breakeven inflation is noticeable.
...
Third, the statement seems to be at odds with a recent article by President Bullard of St. Louis suggesting that a continuation of the Fed’s current stance on short-term interest rates could result in deflation (see "Seven Faces of 'The Peril'", July 28, 2010). The first sentence of the abstract reads: "In this paper I discuss the possibility that the U.S. economy may become enmeshed in a Japanese-style, deflationary outcome within the next several years"
...
Fourth, the statement about the risk of deflation follows the observation a few paragraphs earlier that "[o]ne [participant] noted that survey measures of longer-run inflation expectations had remained positive in Japan throughout that country’s bout of deflation." This is at least noteworthy because Fed officials have frequently pointed to the stability of inflation expectations as a reason to downplay deflation concerns.
Hatzius noticed the same things I did, and it looks like Bullard is turning out to be the anti-Hoenig.  Bernanke has said he'll do whatever it takes to prevent deflation, but as Krugman, Hatzius, and presumably Bullard would argue, you need to get out in front of deflation and not merely react, especially when you're at the zero bound.
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* It wouldn't be surprising to see the Wall Street Journal's reporting lose its quality with Fox "News's" Rupert Murdoch as the new owner. He recently gave a $1,000,000 to the Republican Governors Association.

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